Uyini umkhuba wamanani entengo eluhlaza okwezimboni ngo-2021?

 Lokhu kuphakama kuveza izici ezintathu

Kuthintwe ubhadane lwango-2020, kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, izinto ezahlukahlukene zezimboni ezingavuthiwe nezisizayo zikhombise ukuthambekela okuphelele okuphezulu, futhi amanani entengo yemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene ephindaphinde kakhulu. Ngo-2021, ngokusho kwemithombo efanele yomkhakha, amanani entengo eluhlaza asesezingeni eliphakeme ekuqaleni konyaka. Ngokwethulwa komuthi wokugomela umqhele omusha womhlaba jikelele, isimo se-macroeconomic ekhaya naphesheya kwezilwandle sizokwenyuka, futhi amanani entengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini azokwehla kancane. Ngo-2021, ukuthambekela kwentengo kufanele kubonise ukuphakama kokuqala. Umkhuba uphansi.

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1. Kusukela ngonyaka wezi-2018 kuya kowezi-2020, intengo yemikhiqizo yezimboni izokhuphuka ngendlela ejikelezayo

NgoDisemba, imikhiqizo yezimboni yasekhaya yenyuka njengothingo lwenkosazana, kanti amanani entengo ethusi nawensimbi ayeshaya phezulu eminyakeni emisha edlule. Okubhekiswe kakhulu ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwe-Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ngoNovemba, kukhombisa ukuthi isidingo samanje sezomnotho sisenamandla amancane. Ukunyuka kwamanje kwemikhiqizo yezimboni kuzohlala isikhathi esingakanani, futhi uzibheka kanjani izinguquko zamanani emikhiqizo yezimboni ngonyaka ozayo? Ukusekela ukukhuphuka kwamanani emikhiqizo yezimboni kulo nyaka kuzobandakanya ukuvuselelwa kwesidingo sasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe kanye namandla anele okukhiqiza aphesheya kwezilwandle, kubandakanya nezimayini ezinkulu zaphesheya kwezilwandle (izimayini zensimbi nezethusi). ) Ukwehlisile umkhiqizo, futhi amandla okuncibilikisa aphesheya kwezilwandle awazange aqhubeke.

Umqondo wokukhuphuka kwentengo wemikhiqizo yezimboni ngo-2020 ukungahambisani kahle kokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke kanye nokufunwa ngaphansi komthelela walobhadane. Ngo-2021, ngemuva kokuba ubhadane selulawulwe kahle, ubudlelwano phakathi kokuphakelwa kanye nokufunwa akumele budlulele njengangonyaka odlule. Esikhathini esizayo, amanani azokwehla kancane kancane. Ngokubuka kulezi zinguquko ezilandelayo kumanani entengo yemikhiqizo yezimboni kusuka ku-2018 kuya ku-2020, amasondo alandela lo mjikelezo, kusuka kuzinsimbi eziyisisekelo kuya kumandla, abekade eyindilinga yemikhiqizo yezimboni.

2. Izici zamanani anyukayo ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini

Uma kubhekwa ukwenziwa kwenkomba yamanani abakhiqizi baseChina (PPI), amanani emikhiqizo yezimboni anokuqina okukhulu komhlaba. I-PPI yaseChina ihambisana kakhulu nokushintshashintsha kwenkomba yamanani wokungenisa kanye nenkomba yamandla nensimbi yomhlaba, edinga umbono womhlaba jikelele. Amanani entengo eluhlaza yemikhiqizo yezimboni.

Ngokombono wohlangothi lokuphakelwa kwezimpahla, ubhadane lomqhele omusha lube nomthelela omkhulu futhi luguqule ukwakheka kochungechunge lwezimboni zomhlaba jikelele, ukukhiqizwa okuphansi kakhulu okushintshela eChina, kepha ukwakhiwa kabusha kochungechunge lwezezimboni jikelele kuzoletha izindleko zokungqubuzana, kanye nokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke iphethini yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini iba phakathi nendawo, Uma izifunda ngazinye zithintekile ngumthelela wobhubhane lomqhele omusha namandla abo okukhiqiza athintekile, kuzothinta kakhulu amanani entengo ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini eziseceleni.

Ngasohlangothini lokufunwa, ubhadane olusha lomqhele “seludale” ukufunwa okusha, futhi ngenxa yezinqubomgomo ezinkulu zokukhuthaza izimali zezomnotho ezahlukahlukene, ukuhamba kwemali kwabahlali akukubi, futhi okufunwayo kuyenzeka .

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Lo mjikelezo wamanani akhuphukayo emikhiqizo yezimboni uletha izici ezintathu:

1. Izintengo zemikhiqizo yezimboni zikhuphuke kakhulu ngesikhathi sonyaka. Kunombono wokuthi ukwanda kwamuva kwamanani emikhiqizo yezimboni kuhlobene nesimo sezulu sasebusika esibandayo kanye nesidingo sokushisa esengeziwe. Uma ubheka isikhathi esifanayo emlandweni, imikhiqizo yezimboni izothola ukwanda kwesizini ngoDisemba, kepha siyabona kusuka ekukhuphukeni kwenyanga nenyanga kwentengo yemikhiqizo yezimboni kaNanhua ukuthi ukwanda kwenyanga nenyanga kuka-8.2% ngoZibandlela kudlula kude isilinganiso somlando esingu-1.2%, okukhombisa ukwanda okwedlula isikhathi sonyaka. .

2. Izintengo zeminye imikhiqizo yezimboni sezifinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu emlandweni. Amanani entengo ezinhlobonhlobo zemikhiqizo yezimboni akhuphukile. Uma ubheka i-Nanhua Futures Commodity Index, inkomba yensimbi inezinga lentengo eliphelele kakhulu kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo okukhulu kakhulu. Esikhathini senkomba yensimbi, insimbi yensimbi inokukhula okukhulu kakhulu, kulandele ithusi.

3. Ukukhuphuka kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa kuphakeme kunentengo yefektri yakudala. Sisebenzisa intengo yokuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko ku-PMI ukwenza umehluko ngenani langaphambili lefekthri futhi siliguqule libe unyaka nonyaka. Njengoba kungabonakala eshadini elingezansi, kusukela ngoMeyi, ukwanda kwentengo kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuqhubekile nokuba ngaphezulu kunentengo yangaphambili yefektri.

3. Umkhuba wentengo wezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini zonyaka wonke wezi-2021 uphezulu bese uphansi

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Igagasi elibandayo lasebusika liza, lihambisana nokuza koMkhosi Wentwasahlobo, insimbi yokwakha yasekhaya isingenile ngenkathi yesizini engekho, kanti futhi nobhadane lwasekhaya nolwamanye amazwe luphinde lwaba nzima kakhulu. Kusenezici ezingaqinisekile ukuthi ukuvuselelwa komnotho engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ka-2021 kuzoqhubeka njengoba bekuhleliwe. Uma ukuguquka kwegciwane kungaphazamisi umuthi wokugoma, imakethe yensimbi yaphesheya kwezilwandle izokhuphula ukufunwa kulo nyaka, okuzokwenza kube nemibandela yokwenyuka kokuthengiswa kwensimbi yasekhaya.

Wonke umuntu uyazi ukuthi izinto zokusetshenziswa azikwazi ukuvuka futhi zivuke njalo. Kuzoba khona njalo izikhathi lapho zibuyela emuva. Okubizwa ngokuthi okuphezulu kuqala bese kuba phansi. Ekuqaleni, amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezifana ne-iron ore, amalahle, ithusi, i-aluminium nengilazi ayenyuka. Ukukhuphuka kwempahla eluhlaza kuzokwanda. Izothinta amanani entengo yemikhiqizo yezimboni nempahla yabathengi. Lapho amanani enyuka, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzobe sekwephuzile futhi kuphezulu, futhi kuzofanela ukulawule.

Uma kubhekwa izinto ezahlukahlukene ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, kuningi okulindelwe ekuvuseleleni umnotho kanye nokusebenza kwezinto ezisetshenziswayo zezimboni ngonyaka ka-2021. Ngaphansi kokulindelwa ukuthi iminotho emikhulu yomhlaba izoqhubeka nokugcina izinqubomgomo zokwehlisa imali, isidingo sangempela emakethe yethusi qhubeka nokulindeleka ezindaweni zokuhlala ze-1-2. Ukukhula okuzinzile. Kodwa-ke, izintengo zethusi zingase zehliswe engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.

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Isikhathi Iposi: Jun-11-2021